Republicans are set to flip the Senate for the first time this cycle in this week’s Fox News Power Rankings.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a small post-debate bump, three new toss-up races emerge in the House, and the GOP loses ground on the governor’s map.
Harris comes out stronger from the first debate
Two weeks after their first debate, Harris is up a point and former President Donald Trump is down the same in an average of high-quality polls.
If those numbers sound familiar, it is because they match the shifts after the first debate between President Biden and Trump four years ago.
That could be a problem for Republicans. In 2020, Trump did not narrow the polling gap that the first debate created until a stronger showing in the second. As of today, Harris and Trump have not agreed on terms for a rematch.
Harris’ improvement comes from independents more than any other group. They backed Trump by eight points in a Fox News survey last month but now prefer Harris by 12. Biden won independents by 15 points in the last election, so an enduring Harris lead in this group could give her an edge on election night. (Poll results among subgroups can be volatile.)
The same post-debate poll has Trump down two points among all voters, leaving the former president at 48% and Harris at 50%. A spread like that on election night gives Trump an electoral college advantage.
Further slippage in support for the former president would change that math.
Republicans are poised to control the Senate
Republicans have enjoyed a head start in the Senate from the beginning of this cycle. Their star candidate in Montana is doing more than anyone to get them to the finish line.
The latest forecast predicts Republicans will take at least 51 seats on election night, while Democrats are expected to take at least 47. That leaves two races in the Toss Up category.
Montana moves out of that category this week.
This state has been represented for nearly two decades by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, one of the last rural Democrats, who has leaned on his farming background and gun rights advocacy to exceed expectations in three elections.
However, Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020, and Tester faces a strong opponent in businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. He has run an efficient, disciplined campaign on the economy and the border.
That makes Montana a better pickup opportunity for the GOP than Ohio, which does not lean toward Trump as much as its western neighbor and where Republican candidate Bernie Moreno has made missteps on the trail.
Sheehy leads with 51% to Tester’s 45% in an AARP poll conducted in late August. The incumbent Democrat is ahead among independents, but that is not enough to overcome this conservative electorate.
Sitting among the peaks that shape Montana’s landscape is a mountain of cash. Over $121 million has been spent by the campaigns and outside groups so far, according to OpenSecrets, with at least $100 million more in reserved spending. That is an extraordinary sum for a race that isn’t competitive at the presidential level and equates to more than $150 per registered voter.
That is what keeps this race tight. Tester has more than three times as much cash on hand as Sheehy, giving the Democrat spending money for local advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.
If that cash can push this race back within the margin of error, Democrats have a shot at retaining the upper house.
Montana moves from Toss Up to Lean R.
With 22 toss-up races, the House is up for grabs
The House is still a toss-up in the latest forecast. In fact, with three more races joining that category, it is less clear than ever which direction the lower chamber will take.
- California’s 45th district: President Biden won this southern California district by six points last cycle (Dave’s Redistricting), but its heavy and right-leaning Asian American population makes it highly competitive. Republicans are pouring money into the race to protect incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel, whose position on abortion could be an issue with Los Angeles-area voters. She faces Democratic lawyer Derek Tran. This race moves from Lean R to Toss Up.
- Iowa’s 1st district: A recent Des Moines Register survey showing Harris four points behind Trump raised eyebrows in the Iowa presidential race. It could have a downballot impact as well. Second-term GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by six votes in 2020, and while redistricting gave her a more comfortable win in the midterms, she remains vulnerable in this Davenport and Iowa City district. Former State Representative Christina Bohannan is the Democratic candidate. Iowa’s 1st district moves from Likely R to Toss Up.
- Nebraska’s 2nd district: This Omaha-centered district has been represented by Republican Rep. Don Bacon since 2017. Bacon and the district made news last week when he signed a letter calling for Nebraska to become a ‘winner-take-all’ state before the presidential election. The gamble would have helped Trump if it had succeeded, but calling for the change could put Bacon in danger with some of the centrist voters he has relied on in previous elections. He faces Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas. This district moves from Lean R to Toss Up.
Republicans run from Robinson in North Carolina
Finally, a sleepy gubernatorial cycle had its wake-up call last Thursday when CNN reported that North Carolina Republican Lt. Gov Mark Robinson referred to himself as a ‘Black Nazi’ on a porn website he frequented between 2008 and 2012. He denied the report.
Robinson is more than embattled in this race. At least four senior staffers have resigned from his campaign, allies have jumped ship, and the Republican Governors Association is not spending another dollar on advertising.
No one knows how this will impact Trump. Voting has begun with Robinson’s name a few rows down from Trump’s on the ballot, and Democrats are reminding voters about the strong, consistent praise that the former president has offered Robinson. However, calcified support for Trump among Republicans and the state’s history of ticket splitting should keep him competitive.
In the meantime, the Power Rankings already had the governor’s race at Lean D because of previous Robinson scandals. Now, it moves to Likely D.
Voting underway with six weeks to go until election day
Voting has begun in 21 states, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, Minnesota and Virginia. By the end of the month, more than half of all states will send ballots to voters.
While many voters are expected to cast a ballot early, election day itself is only six weeks away.
Next week, vice presidential hopefuls Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, will participate in a debate hosted by CBS News in New York City. Fox News will simulcast the debate with special coverage anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Fox News Media has proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be moderated by MacCallum and Baier in October.